What are alternatives to Iranian oil?
Monday, 6 May, 2019
In brief: Producers of heavy and medium sour crudes like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq are among the winners from US sanctions aimed at Iranian shipments. Below is an infographic looking at which producers and crudes may gain market share when US waivers for Iranian oil producers expire on May 2.
S&P Global Platts visualized how alternative suppliers could step in to provide replacement grades with similar characteristics to Iranian types of crude.
U.S. officials have expressed confidence that those who have been operating under waivers to buy Iranian oil will be able to find alternative supplies when those waivers expire next week.
The United States issued eight waivers when it brought back the sanctions in November, temporarily exempting most of the biggest buyers of Iranian oil. Those included China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy and Greece. Since the sanctions were reintroduced, Italy, Greece and Taiwan have halted their Iranian oil imports.
Still, experts contend that the US does not have the mechanisms, manpower or resources to impose a stringent set of enforcements on border trade with countries adjacent to Iran - namely Iraq and Turkey.
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said Wednesday that the United States will not be able to bring Iranian oil exports to zero, and that Iran’s oil-producing neighbors have exaggerated their ability to increase their production to a level that would replace the Iranian oil being blocked from the market.